Asta Risk Management

Asta Risk Analysis and Management is a risk management software tool that can be added on to Asta PowerProject. Each task in the project is provided with a minimum, most likely and maximum duration or cost based upon an appraisal of the risks involved in its execution. Asta Risk Analysis then executes a Monte Carlo Simulation (quantitative analysis). This is a process of randomly selecting the duration from the three values provided and remembering them whilst it completes a forward and backward pass to determine the critical path and duration (and cost) of the project. This single iteration is repeated thousands of times, each with a random selection of the values of each duration, resulting in a separate critical path and duration (and cost) of the project. The results are plotted out in a bell curve and then an “S” curve showing the probability of completion (or cost) against a time line (or likely cost) of actual results achieved in the iterations. This information is extremely useful in the determination of many metrics:

• The probability of completing at a particular date (or project cost)
• The contingency which could be included for the completion date (or project cost) selected
• Criticality – the number of times a particular activity is in the critical path of each iteration. This indicates the sensitivity of the activities

Asta Risk Analysis is extremely helpful in the management of uncertainty and this leads, in turn, to a more certain outcome. Many clients insist on risk management being adopted on projects and Asta Risk Analysis will suit this purpose.

Companion Products:

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